What’s Builders and Buyers Need to Know: Q4 Housing Forecast Webinar On-Demand

Housing demand hasn’t disappeared—but affordability and consumer confidence continue to shape (and constrain) the market. In this Q4 Housing Market Forecast webinar, Zonda’s team unpacks what’s happening nationally and then drills into key regional stories across the Desert markets (Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas) and Southern California (LA/Orange County, San Diego, Inland Empire). Throughout the conversation, one theme stands out: the market is challenging, but it’s still moving—and the winners will be those who align product, pricing, and messaging with today’s active buyer.

Watch the full webinar recording to see the data and hear the forecasts from Ali Wolf, Evan Forrest, and Peter Dennehy.

Key takeaways

National Forecast – presented by Ali Wolf

1. Affordability is the core constraint, and rates are the biggest swing factor.
   With mortgage rates back in the mid–high 7% range, Ali noted a meaningful hit to purchasing power versus earlier in the year—pushing payment-to-income levels back to around the “problem zone” near 40%.
2. Builders are leaning harder on incentives and price adjustments, at a margin cost.
   Incentives (especially rate buydowns) and more publicly advertised price cuts are increasingly prominent as builders try to offset affordability pressure, even as input and operating costs remain elevated.
3. Active shoppers skew older and smaller-household—product and messaging should follow.
   Zonda’s consumer segmentation findings show retirees as the most active new-home shopper group, and at least half of active shoppers not having a child at home, signaling opportunities for different floor plans, community design, and marketing emphasis than the traditional “nuclear family” default.

Arizona and Nevada – presented by Evan Forrest

1. The Desert markets still have long-term demand support from household growth, especially Phoenix.
   Population and household projections remain constructive across Phoenix, Tucson, and Las Vegas, reinforcing the idea of continued housing need even in a turbulent affordability environment.
2. Supply discipline remains intact; no major overbuilding signal.
   Inventory composition shows finished vacant homes staying subdued, and months supply remains relatively controlled, suggesting builders are managing pipelines carefully rather than flooding the market.
3. Demand trends diverge: Phoenix and Tucson are stabilizing, while Las Vegas is softer.
   Contract sales patterns point to relative stability in Arizona markets recently, while Las Vegas shows more continued slippage, an important near-term flag when planning starts, product, and pacing.

Southern California – presented by Peter Dennehy

1. Southern California doesn’t have a demand problem, it has a supply problem.
   Despite a massive population base, the region produces comparatively few new homes annually; constrained production keeps demand for new product resilient relative to many national markets.
2. Higher-density product is no longer “a niche” it’s the path to attainability.
   Attached and other higher-density formats have grown substantially as a share of sales, and many of the top-performing projects are townhomes or denser configurations that bring pricing closer to what buyers can manage.
3. New homes are competing more directly with resale as price gaps narrow.
   The new-home premium has compressed (and in some cases flipped), as builders deliver smaller/denser product and compete aggressively—often further supported by incentives not reflected in base-price comparisons.

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