Zonda’s Q2 housing market forecast points to a market that has largely moved beyond the extremes of the pandemic era. Conditions today are closer to 2019 norms—but it doesn’t feel that way.
Higher mortgage rates, stretched affordability, and a more cautious consumer have reshaped how demand shows up. The result: a housing market that is fundamentally stable, but far more selective.
Watch the on-demand recording of the Q2 Housing Market Forecast webinar below, or read on for the key takeaways, to understand what we’re seeing across the national landscape, the Carolinas, and Florida.
The national outlook: stable foundation, constrained demand
Presented by Tim Sullivan, Chief Advisory Officer
The housing market today is defined by balance—and tension.
Long-term demand drivers like demographics, job growth, and migration remain intact. At the same time, affordability constraints and economic uncertainty are slowing buyer decision-making.
- Affordability continues to be the central challenge.
- Buyers are still in the market, but they are more price-sensitive, more patient, and more deliberate.
Builders are responding accordingly—adjusting pace, leaning on incentives, and focusing more closely on product-market alignment.
The shift isn’t a downturn—it’s a recalibration.
Demand drivers are evolving, not disappearing
Two trends are shaping where and how demand materializes:
- High-income job growth is increasingly driving market performance at the local level
- Migration patterns are shifting, with continued strength in the Southeast despite some softening in international flows
The result is a market where performance varies more by geography—and by price point—than in recent years.
A return to “normal” absorption
Across many major metros, sales pace has reset closer to pre-pandemic levels. That normalization can feel like weakness when compared to COVID-era highs, but it reflects a more sustainable baseline.
Performance differs significantly by buyer segment:
- Entry-level demand remains the most constrained
- Move-up is more balanced
- Higher-end buyers continue to show relative resilience
Carolinas outlook: growth remains a defining advantage
Presented by Shaun McCutcheon, Vice President of Advisory
The Carolinas remain a standout region, supported by strong demographic trends and economic growth.
Markets like Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham continue to benefit from in-migration and job creation, though supply and affordability dynamics are creating more variation in performance across product types.
The key theme: demand is there—but increasingly dependent on price and positioning.
Florida outlook: resilience beneath the headlines
Presented by Susan Heffron, Vice President of Advisory
Despite mixed media narratives, Florida’s housing market continues to show underlying strength.
Demand is supported by a diverse buyer base, including retirees, equity-driven movers, and family-oriented migration trends. At the same time, affordability has become more complex—extending beyond mortgage rates to include insurance, taxes, and fees.
New construction remains competitive, particularly where builders are aligning pricing, incentives, and product with today’s buyer expectations.
The bottom line: normal market, higher bar
The housing market has returned to something closer to normal—but expectations need to reset alongside it.
- Affordability is the defining constraint
- Demand is present, but more selective
- Performance varies significantly by price point and location
- Strategy—not just scale—will determine outcomes
Success in this environment requires sharper execution—not just scale.
Watch the full Q2 forecast
This overview highlights just a portion of what was covered in the full webinar, including deeper market-level data, builder survey insights, and forward-looking forecasts.
Watch the full recording to access the complete outlook and detailed analysis.
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