The multifamily housing market is facing a period of transition. Rising interest rates, a surge of new supply, and shifting renter expectations are reshaping the landscape for developers, operators, and investors. Even industry veterans are navigating unfamiliar terrain as they balance near-term headwinds with long-term opportunity.
Kimberly Byrum, managing principal of Zonda’s multifamily practice, has spent more than 30 years analyzing these cycles. With nearly two decades at JPI, where she helped expand the firm nationally, and now leading Zonda’s multifamily team, Byram brings a rare combination of operational knowledge, data expertise, and strategic vision.
Her work blends national perspective with local nuance. She’s advised clients from Portland to Tampa to Portsmouth, New Hampshire, often uncovering insights others miss. Her “stripped rent analysis” quantifies the value of amenities, while her push to redefine competitive market areas challenges reliance on broad submarket boundaries.
In this Inside Edge conversation, Zonda’s Chief Advisory Officer Tim Sullivan sat down with Byrum to discuss the state of multifamily housing, how to think differently about supply, and the trends that will shape the next cycle.
You oversee Zonda’s multifamily practice, and you and I have worked together for well over a decade. For those who don’t know your background, how did you get started in the industry?
I graduated from Texas A&M in 1991—right in the middle of a recession. I answered a newspaper ad for someone who could use WordPerfect and Lotus 123, and my resume landed at JPI, then a small Dallas-based multifamily builder.
At the time, I was one of the only people with a computer on my desk. My boss would hand me calculations from his 12C calculator and ask me to put them into spreadsheets. That was my entry point, turning paper into analysis. Soon, I was surveying competitors by phone, gathering rent and occupancy data, and mailing out market summaries. People started calling me for “market studies,” and that’s how I built a reputation.
I’ll never forget the first time I set rents over $1 per square foot in Austin. I thought no one would ever pay that much. Today, those same units rent for close to $3 a square foot.
You spent nearly 20 years at JPI, eventually expanding into a national role. What did that experience teach you?
We partnered with GE Capital, which gave me the chance to travel with their risk managers and pair our multifamily expertise with their broader commercial research. That experience taught me how equity evaluates deals, underwrites risk, and reads markets. GE prided itself on discipline, and that shaped the way I still approach analysis today.
With that national lens, how do you approach local market nuances?
National coverage, combined with local expertise, is where we add the most value. What we see in Portland might apply in Tampa, or lessons from Canada can inform U.S. strategies. But every market has quirks. Small markets aren’t necessarily easier—data can be sparse, and sometimes you must look far away for comparable properties. Years ago, in Arizona, we chased properties with granite countertops because that was the hot differentiator.
I recently worked in Portsmouth, NH, and Park City, Utah—places where local comps are not available. You must get creative, adjust for location, and really understand what people are willing to pay.
Your team is known for stripped rent analysis. How does that work?
We adjust for more than 260 amenity options—everything from closet size and ceiling height to pools and tech packages. We quantify what each feature contributes to rent.
Fees are also critical. Rent is the headline number, but in many markets, technology packages, pet fees, and parking can add 20%–25% to the effective rent. We dig into that so clients see the full “all-in” picture.
Supply is always a hot topic. How do you see it today?
Submarkets can be misleading. A “West Valley” submarket might cover 50,000 units, but a project’s real competitive set could be 3,000. I push my team to define competitive market areas (CMAs) using real boundaries—trade areas around grocery stores, schools, and roads. Walmart won’t cannibalize itself with another supercenter nearby; renters think the same way.
That kind of local detail matters more than broad submarket stats.
You’ve also emphasized OPEX analysis. Why is that important now?
In downturns, developers often shift into asset management mode, watching every lease. Operators are tactical by nature—they solve problems in real time—but they don’t always have bandwidth for strategy. That’s where we step in, providing diagnostics, benchmarks, and recommendations.
One issue we track is “lease-up fatigue.” Properties may lease 25 units a month until they hit 50% occupancy, then momentum slows. Inventory quality drops, staff morale dips, and renewal activity complicates things. Recognizing those patterns early helps owners adjust.
On the BTR side, I’ve seen fatigue around 150 units. Do you see a unit count that triggers it in multifamily?
Generally, anything under 200 units leases slower. Projects around 300–350 units are typical. But I expect future projects, post-2026, to trend larger as developers spread construction costs over more units.
Our data doesn’t show that 500-unit projects lease slower than 300-unit ones, but equity often asks. So we flag it, analyze it, and prepare answers.
Looking ahead, what trends should multifamily leaders prepare for?
I expect larger deals to return. Value engineering will be critical but so will return on amenities. Not all amenities add dollar-for-dollar value—sometimes they simply offset weaker locations.
Another development is in the cottage space. We now see “core cottage” communities—first-gen, fairly uniform—and “lifestyle cottage” communities with full amenities. Interestingly, pricing hasn’t differentiated much between them yet, which creates challenges.
To reach Tim Sullivan and enquire about Zonda’s advisory services, email him at tsullivan@zondahome.com.
