New Home Market Update

Zonda tracks 85% of the production new home market across the United States. Given the proprietary database, Zonda is uniquely positioned to capture trends and changes in the new home market. This report showcases the latest housing trends in the new home market for April 2025.

New home sales: the muted spring continues

Consumers in many housing markets across the country have reached their limit, both financially and mentally. Financially, stubbornly high mortgage rates have contributed to housing affordability holding at the worst level in 30 years. Mentally, people are still trying to make sense of the impact of tariffs and are nervous about job security. As a result, the housing market isn’t going anywhere fast.

We see this in the latest Zonda data. New home sales were flat month-over-month and were down 6.9% compared to last year. The Zonda Market Ranking, which looks at new home sales adjusted for supply and seasonality, came in as average yet again in April. Importantly, quick move-in (QMI) inventory isn’t hitting the alarming levels we saw in 2022, at least not nationally. Across the country, there was an average of 2.3 QMIs per community in April, up 22% from the 1.9 this time last year but down 9.0% from the 2022 peak of 2.5.

“New home sales have been choppy to start the year but remain above 2019 levels,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda and NewHomeSource. “Today’s sale volume levels are fueled by the fact that builders are motivated sellers, though. Builders continue to offer incentives to drive sales, but we’re seeing price cuts play a larger role in some areas.”

New home sales held steady month-over-month

Zonda’s new home sales metric counts the number of new home contract sales each month and accounts for both cancellations and seasonality. This metric shows there were 693,721 new homes sold in April on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. This was a gain of 0.2% from last month and a drop of 6.9% from a year ago. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, 63,707 homes were sold, 4.7% lower than last year and 10.2% above the same month in 2019.

The PSI was down 6.2% year-over-year

Zonda’s New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) was created to help account for fluctuations in supply by combining both total sales volume with the average sales rate per month per community. The April PSI came in at 136.2, representing a 6.2% decline from the same month last year. The index is currently 21.8% below cycle highs. On a month-over-month basis, seasonally adjusted new home sales decreased 0.5%.

• The markets that posted the best numbers relative to last year were Cincinnati (+38.1%), New York (+13.6%), and Charlotte (+8.9%). Cincinnati was up compared to last year and grew 11.8% month-over-month.
• Inversely, the metros that performed the worst year-over-year were San Francisco (-47.8%), Riverside/San Bernardino (-28.4%), and Los Angeles/OC (-24.4%). Consumer confidence is adding to these already affordability-challenged markets.
• On a monthly basis, Salt Lake City, Cincinnati, and Seattle were the best performing markets. Salt Lake City increased 14.4% relative to last month.

The ZMR was average for the fourth month in a row

In order to add further context to sales, Zonda created the Zonda Market Ranking (ZMR). The ZMR accounts for both sales pace and volume, is seasonally adjusted, and is taken as a percentage relative to a baseline market average. Based on the percentage above or below baseline, markets are bucketed into performance groups ranging from significantly underperforming to significantly overperforming relative to historical activity.

The map below shows a snapshot of the top production markets by region. Zonda also offers the ZMR for entry-level, move-up/move-down, and high-end markets. Subscribers of the National Outlook report can access all top markets and the tiered breakdown in Zonda’s portal. Non-subscribers can access the tiered maps for the select 10 markets by clicking below.

Get ZMR Maps

• The National ZMR index came in at 108.0 in April, which was flat month-over-month and continues to indicate an average market. The National ZMR has been average throughout 2025 so far after being rated slightly overperforming for all of 2024.
• Zonda’s snapshot markets were split between 10% overperforming, 60% average, and 30% underperforming, marking a slight shift up from last month. Among Zonda’s top 50 major markets, 42% were overperforming, 38% were average, and 20% were underperforming.
• Importantly, the ZMR does not account for what it takes to sell a home. For example, securing a sale might still feel difficult in a significantly overperforming market, but if incentives offered result in a sale, we count the sale.

Pricing was mixed year-over-year

Prices fell 0.8% for entry-level to $328,540 and 0.2% for move-up to $518,931 but rose 0.4% for high-end homes to $910,304.

Supplementing our data with a monthly survey Zonda conducts, 35% of builders lowered prices in April, 49% held prices flat, and 16% raised prices. In March, for comparison, 32% of builders lowered prices MOM, 53% held prices flat, and 15% increased prices.

Community counts were flat month-over-month

There are currently 16,025 actively selling communities tracked by Zonda, up 7.3% from last year. On a month-over-month basis, the national figure largely flattened -0.3%. Total community count is 16.9% below the same month in 2019.

• Orlando (+23.5%), Raleigh (+12.4%), and Charlotte (+12.3%) grew community count the most year-over-year.
• Relative to last year, the biggest community count declines were in Washington, DC (-16.3%), Philadelphia (-16.3%), and Las Vegas (-10.9%).

National quick move-ins (QMIs) totaled 34,567, up 16.3% compared to last year but 5.9% lower month-over-month. Total QMIs were 78.4% above 2019 level. QMIs are homes that can likely be occupied within 90 days.

For many consumers, QMIs provide a great option given the lack of resale supply. As a result, some builders have pivoted to a more spec-heavy strategy to help capture today’s buyers. In some markets, however, resale inventory is rising and QMIs have become less desirable than earlier this year.

• On a metro basis, 84% of Zonda’s select markets increased QMI count year-over-year.
• The markets that grew the most year-over-year were Seattle (+113.7%), Charlotte (+72.6%), and Washington, DC (+65.6%).
• Jacksonville, Sacramento, and Phoenix have seen the most growth in QMIs compared to the same time in 2019, up 320.6%, 294.7%, and 205.8%, respectively. QMIs are homes that can likely be occupied within 90 days.

NEW: We now include QMIs per community in this report. QMIs per community is a good way to track how new home supply looks in the context of actively selling projects. There were 2.3 QMIs per community nationally in April, up 22% from the 1.9 this time last year but down 9.0% from the 2022 peak of 2.5.

Please note, the QMI per community data aligns with this report covering April trends. Our quick move-in data is weekly, and we release the latest available at the time of publishing this report. As such, recreating the visual below with the data above will yield slightly different results.

Are you interested in seeing past National Housing Market Update and Pending Sales Index reports? Access our report library to learn more.

Methodology

The Zonda New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) is built on proprietary, industry-leading data that covers 85% of the production new home market across the United States. Reported number of new home pending contracts are gathered and analyzed each month. Released on the 15th business day of each month, the New Home PSI is a leading indicator of housing demand compared to closings because it is based on the number of signed contracts at a new home community. Zonda monitors 15,000 active communities in the country and the homes tracked can be in any stage of construction.  

The new home market represents roughly 10% of all transactions, allowing little movements in supply to cause outsized swings in market activity. As a result, the New Home PSI blends the cumulative sales of activity recently sold out projects with the average sales rate per community, which adjusts for fluctuations in supply. Furthermore, the New Home PSI is seasonally adjusted based on each markets’ specific seasonality, removes outliers, and uses June 2016 as the base month. The foundation of the index is a monthly survey conducted by Zonda. It is necessary to monitor both new and existing home sales to establish an accurate picture of the relative health of the residential real estate market. 

About Zonda

Zonda provides data-driven housing market solutions to the homebuilding and multifamily industries. From builders to building product manufacturers, mortgage clients, and multifamily executives, we work hand-in-hand with our customers to streamline access to housing data to empower smarter decisions. As a leading brand in residential construction, our mission is to advance the home building industry, because we believe better homes mean better lives and stronger communities. Together, we are building the future of housing.

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