Dec 20, 2019

Housing Trends

New Home PSI: November New Home Pending Sales Increase 14.3%

November’s New Home Pending Sales Index shows that new home contracts are 14.3% stronger than last year when adjusting for supply and seasonality. The November release captures easy comps from the same time last year, driving the growth rate remarkably high for some top markets across the country. Even still, the national index is 5.0% higher than November 2017.

The Index shows a 120.5 for November, representing a 14.3% increase from November 2018. On a month-over-month basis, new home sales increased by 1.3% between October and November 2019.

Markets Driving The Increase In New Home Pending Sales

  • Los Angeles, Seattle, and Denver experienced the most significant growth compared to last year, up 33.9%, 33.6%, and 25.4%, respectively. 
  • Phoenix and Dallas show double-digit increases on a two year basis, highlighting the strength of the local housing markets.
  • November home sales also show momentum in Houston, Denver and Washington, DC on a two year basis.

“The renewed momentum in the US housing market accompanies the rebound in broader economic growth,” said Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at Meyers Research. “November’s new home sales show that homebuyers are feeling confidence and are eager to take advantage of low mortgage rates.”

How can the New Home PSI help shape your strategy?

Methodology

The Meyers Research New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) is built on proprietary, industry-leading data that covers 60% of the production new home market across the United States. Reported number of new home pending contracts are gathered and analyzed each month. Released on the 15th business day of each month, the New Home PSI is a leading indicator of housing demand compared to closings because it is based on the number of signed contracts at a new home community. Meyers Research monitors 18,000 active communities in the country and the homes tracked can be in any stage of construction.

The New Home PSI is susceptible to outsized swings in contract activity based on shifts in the number of actively selling communities. As a result, Meyers Research normalizes the data to ensure consistency across the index. The New Home PSI blends the cumulative sales of active or recently sold-out projects with the average sales rate per community, which adjusts for fluctuations in supply. Furthermore, the New Home PSI is seasonally adjusted based on each markets’ specific seasonality, removes outliers, and uses June 2016 as the base month.

The data provided in this release are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be modified, resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from Meyers Research.

Ali Wolf

Chief Economist

Ali Wolf

Chief Economist

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